The Brief – The fall of Iran’s mullahs

Iran was a monarchy until 1979 when the Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, was overthrown by the Iranian revolution, since then, it has become a "mollaharchy".

Indeed, the Islamic Republic of Iran is the world's first and only Shiite theocracy ruled by clerics of the Shia sect of Islam, generally known as "mollahs" or “mullahs” in the West.

At least three generations of radical Iranian clerics have viewed Israel as illegitimate for seizing sacred Islamic lands, namely the West Bank and East Jerusalem.

Its anti-Israeli stance and anti-Semitic rhetoric have allowed Tehran to take the lead regionally, while other Arab states gradually lost interest in supporting the cause of the Palestinians. In Gaza, the Iranian support for Hamas is key.

After the disastrous Iran-Iraq war (1980-1988), Tehran shifted its strategy to fight its wars and advance its interests, through proxies.

Against Israel, they have installed pro-Iranian militias across the region, most importantly, Hezbollah in Lebanon, but also backing the Houthis in Yemen, who have attacked Saudia Arabi and international shipping, along with supporting militias in Iraq, Syria, and Bahrain.

Additionally, Iran has recruited Shia militiamen from Pakistan and Afghanistan to fight in Syria.

The 7 October attack, almost one year ago was a game changer. Israel has largely knocked out Hamas and in recent days has decapitated Hezbollah in Lebanon.

After firing some 200 missiles that did little harm to Israel, Tehran said, "Our action is concluded unless the Israeli regime decides to invite further retaliation.”

More significantly, the spokesperson of Iran’s foreign ministry said that the country has no plans to send its army to directly confront Israel.

How have the mullahs become so peace-loving?

They clearly realise that they are militarily weaker, but more importantly, they fear the collapse of their regime.

Those familiar with the country describe Iranian society as a volcano, waiting to explode. Dissent is reportedly growing over an array of political, social and economic crises.

Iranians still have painful memories of the handling of the nationwide unrest, sparked by the death in custody of Mahsa Amini in 2022, which was quelled by a violent state crackdown, involving mass detentions and even executions.

Economic hardships pose another challenge. Many analysts say that millions have lost hope that the religious leaders can resolve its economic crisis, fomented by a combination of US sanctions, mismanagement and corruption.

I have visited Iran as a journalist, pretending I was a tourist and saw with my eyes that society widely hates them, aspiring for a secular society similar to the West. This is particularly striking when it comes to women, who despite the risks, openly defy the requirement to cover their hair and wear long, loose-fitting clothes.

This brought to me memories of dissent in Eastern Europe during communism, when people were silently rejecting the imposed ideology, wearing blue jeans was less of a fashion than an attitude.

Iranian society appeared to me as more courageous, given that repression there is more cruel.

Reportedly many citizens are collaborating with Israeli intelligence, not only for the cash, but because for them the enemy is the mullahs.

Israel is probably banking on regime change, as the United States did vis-a-vis Eastern Europe in the 1990s.

In this thinking Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the people of Iran in a video message, telling them: “When Iran is finally free and that moment will come a lot sooner than people think – everything will be different.”

Netanyahu’s speech would have been more powerful had he also outlined a project of a common future for Israelis and Palestinians. But he said nothing about the Palestinians.

Is regime change around the corner? Those who are over-optimistic should be reminded that such predictions were regularly made over the last 40 years, if not more.

In the case of Eastern Europe, the change happened unexpectedly and very fast in 1989 and took place without bloodshed. (Bloodshed started when Putin started to undo the changes by invading Ukraine in 2022.)

The comparison should probably stop here. It seems preposterous to imagine a fast change without bloodshed in the Middle East.

Too much blood is already flowing. The objective today is more modest - to avoid a much wider conflict.

The Roundup

The Tech Brief - Digital Fairness Checked, Council on cloud certification schemes

Italy’s largest lobby group to push for EU policy U-turn on CO2 emission trading system Experts warn that recent and hefty investments risk becoming almost worthless because stringent ETS rules will swallow all the profits.