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A wave of high-profile reshuffles among the German coalition parties has all but kicked off the 2025 national election campaign. Prepare for a year of German introspection and Europe on pause.
A prominent EU lawmaker once told me the relationship between European officials and Brussels correspondents feels like a Stockholm syndrome community of people caring about an unpopular cause. If we take up this health-related metaphor, then covering EU politics from a European capital, as I do, sometimes feels like being on life support.
Reporting on the fringe of a fringe topic often means rehashing the news that national media uncover and pump through their channels while breathlessly holding out for the smallest glimmer of an EU scoop.
The German national election, scheduled for 28 September 2025, is the pinnacle of that existence. With the country entering a period of intense introspection, reporting focuses on national news and translating Germany’s political oddities.
The latest political bombshell in Berlin was a painful reminder that election time – and thus, translating time – finally came to us: On Monday, Kevin Kühnert, the general secretary of the Social Democratic party of Chancellor Olaf Scholz, resigned.
Anyone versed in Berlin’s political vocabulary quickly grasped the significance of this announcement, as was demonstrated by subsequent breaking news notifications. Anyone in Brussels might rightly wonder: Kevin, who? General what?
In short, Kühnert’s resignation was the latest sign that the main parties in Germany were settling their final campaign line-up for the 2025 ballot.
Kühnert is a political heavyweight both by title and personal standing.
As Generalsekretär, the SPD's political communication and election campaigning fall into his remit. He is also incidentally known as a face of the party’s left and occasional critic of Scholz.
However, while this did reportedly not play a role in his retreat, as Kühnert resigned for health reasons, the timing was chosen so that the SPD campaign team could rebuild around a figure with more stamina before the election.
Thus, the staffing tableau for 2025 is taking shape.
Kanzlerkandidaten and Brandmauern
Two weeks before Kühnert’s retreat, the leaders of the Green party, Omid Nouripour and Ricarda Lang, also resigned. The capital was quickly abuzz with briefings that the step was preparing a reorganisation of the SPD’s junior coalition partner around the likely lead candidate, Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck.
Habeck has not announced his bid, but it is at least suspicious that one of the designated new leaders, Franziska Brantner, serves as junior minister in his economy ministry.
Hot on the heels of the Greens’ reshuffle, the far-right AfD announced that it would run with co-leader Alice Weidel as its first-ever Kanzlerkandidatin.
Experienced German watchers will note that this makes her more than just a Spitzenkandidatin, as the term Kanzlerkandidatin suggests that Weidel has a shot at the chancellery.
Do not be fooled though – the party may be the second-most popular one, but this is a marketing gag. Think of the Brandmauer (this is one for another time).
Friedrich Merz has more of a shot, if not currently the greatest shot. He was crowned Kanzlerkandidat of the centre-right CDU/CSU list three weeks ago, which has been leading the polls for more than two years straight.
A question mark remains over whether the FDP, the third coalition party, will draw any staffing consequences from its dismal polling, or if it will just bring down the whole coalition instead – all is on the cards.
Some also believe that the SPD might still swap the unpopular chancellor for the much more popular Defence Minister Boris Pistorius – perhaps driven by the Kamala Harris fever in the United States and a recent party retreat where unhappy SPD MPs mingled with journalists.
But rumours have quieted following a resounding SPD victory in the recent Brandenburg regional elections.
This is but a taster of where the German debate will go. On topics, expect intense self-therapy along the lines of "Why is Germany doing so badly?" If you think this is peak national politics, wait for the SPD to pull out one of its pet causes, pensions.
That is not to say that there will not be the occasional EU-level upset move for national effect (see, for example, border controls). But the bandwidth of the average German politician is not likely to have much space for Brussels in what is to come.
The Roundup
Showdown in Strasbourg: Von der Leyen v Viktor Orbán. Orbán expressed frustration over what he perceived as a “political party clash” as he faced criticism while presenting Hungary’s Council priorities.
The Health Brief - Questions for Health Commissioner-designate Olivér Várhelyi
An internal EU Commission proposal to lump research, innovation, and strategic spending into a European Competitiveness Fund (ECF) in the 2028-2034 budget has experts excited but wary of 'prohibitive' governance needs and 'planning economy' risks.
‘Scandalous’ election campaign in Bulgaria brought to the attention of EU institutions. Kyuchyuk said Peevski aims to “reload” his power to continue to control the country’s democratic institutions.
EU defence agency relocates to larger headquarters near European quarter. The move brings the agency closer to the European Council buildings and other EU institutions in the Schuman area.
EU toughens tone towards Georgia ahead of 26 October elections. “Georgian people have the right to choose their own political future,” according to EU leaders.
The European Commission is showing signs of losing patience with Bulgaria, which has dragged its feet for more than two years in adopting reforms to continue payments under the Recovery and Sustainability Plan.
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico (Smer-SD/NI) lashed out at major media outlets at a press conference on Tuesday, accusing them of undermining his government and hinting at new possible measures against them, including creating a national media authority.
Norway will raise its threat level from moderate to high, namely because of the intensification of threats against Jewish and Israeli targets in the country, the Norwegian Police Security Service said on Tuesday.
German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser has hailed the drop in asylum applications as proof that the country’s tough measures are working, with figures for 2024 showing a 23% drop from the previous year.
Look out for:
- The European Commission and the French Ministry of Energy are organising in Pau, France, a hybrid conference titled “4th Industrial Carbon Management Forum”
- The European Commission is organising in Brussels, Belgium, a hybrid workshop titled “Sustaining Productivity Growth in the Twin Transition”
- The European Commission is organising in Brussels, Belgium, an online conference titled “The role of EU research and innovation for boosting energy security and competitiveness”
- The European Economic and Social Committee (EESC) is organising in Brussels, Belgium, a conference “Promoting intergenerational solidarity in the EU”
- The British Chamber of Commerce in Belgium is organising the “Capital Markets Workshop” in Brussels, Belgium.
- EU Tax Observatory is organising in Paris, France, a conference debate on “The Golden Passport: Global Mobility for Millionaires”
- The informal meeting of EU employment, social policy, and health ministers continues for a second day in Budapest, Hungary.
- EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Home Affairs) meeting in Luxembourg, on the agenda is implementing the European Commission’s antiracism action plan.
- European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visits Chisinau, Moldova, where she will meet President of Moldova Maia Sandu,
- The European Parliament will debate the rise of religious intolerance in Europe in plenary in Strasbourg, France.
- The European Parliament will highlight World Mental Health Day with a debate on the need for a comprehensive EU strategy on mental health.
- MEPs will also discuss the consequences of the devastating forest fires in the Amazon and their impact on climate change.
- European Commissioner Didier Reynders discusses the Rule of Law Report 2024 with MEPs.
- European Commissioner Jutta Urpilainen attends the Global Gateway High-Level Youth Event
- European Commissioner Elisa Ferreira participates as a keynote speaker at the Cohesion Alliance at the European Committee of the Regions.
