Inside Ukraine’s effort to keep its lights on this winter

As Russia intensifies its attacks, Ukraine faces a critical battle to keep the lights on this winter, which officials warn could be the toughest since the start of Russia’s war on the country.

MOSHUN, UKRAINE – A sleepy town on the northern outskirts of Kyiv, Moshun was a strategic point in the path of Russian troops on their way to capture Kyiv.

Oleksandr Syrskyi, the Ukrainian commander overseeing the defence of Kyiv, fortified the place as it could serve as a gateway into the capital.

When the Russian invading troops occupied the town for 16 days, the fierce fighting between both sides damaged 10,000 kilometres of energy infrastructure in the area.

“It is a distance comparable as from Kyiv to Los Angeles,” Serhii Buriak, DTEK head of the Buchansky region electrical grid, told Euractiv.

“When the region was ultimately de-occupied on 2 April 2022, we only understood the full scale of the damage,” said Buriak, adding that most of it back then was not deliberate but a consequence of the fighting.

Around 260,000 households in the region were left without electricity, but power was fully restored within 45 days after the occupation.

So far, the inhabitants of Moshun have been lucky – there have been no repeated direct strikes like in the early days of the war.

Buriak, however, says there is no guarantee that debris might not hit the town again, should the Russians intensify their strikes on Kyiv this winter.

“There is no day without a repair,” says Buriak, adding that DTEK has a 24/7 rolling shift of mobile repair teams.

“We have no direct strikes, but what does happen all the time is that our anti-aircraft shoots things down, and the debris falls on the wires; it is something that we are forced to restore constantly,” he said.

Battered energy sector

Russian attacks this spring and summer had destroyed 9GW of Ukraine's 19GW energy generation, according to the Ukraine Energy Ministry.

Russia has so far destroyed up to 90% of the country's thermal generation capability, along with damage to a large number of distribution substations, and several hydroelectric power plants, according to Ukraine's largest private energy company, DTEK.

In a best-case scenario calculated by the energy provider, Ukraine would face an average of five hours a day without electricity this winter - if there are no further attacks, and temperatures do not go below -15C.

Ukrainian energy companies across the country have repaired several damaged main power stations and built physical protective shelters to protect them from future attacks.

It has also increased its electricity imports from Europe to compensate for the shortfall.

But, as winter approaches, Ukraine's rising electricity consumption for heating has raised the demand for generators and portable charging stations.

According to estimates by Ukraine's energy ministry, the country would still need around 2,500 generators to cover potential needs.

Nuclear power critical

Ukraine’s three remaining nuclear stations account for nearly half of the country’s energy generation.

"As the president has said before, we have obtained intelligence that Russians are planning to strike some part of our nuclear sites - not the reactors, but the substations," Oleksandr Lytvynenko, secretary of Ukraine’s National Security Council, told Euractiv.

According to him, the Ukrainian side understands that Russian troops would also rely on energy experts to carry out strikes, by targeting the most vulnerable points for energy generation.

"It will be very dangerous, not only because it will constrain our generation, but because it is a real threat to nuclear catastrophe - Russians are not famous for their preciseness either," added Lytvynenko.

As Euractiv reported earlier, Kyiv is currently in talks with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), to place more foreign observers near its nuclear power plants, to protect the country's energy supply.

"Nuclear is our main energy source right now, and so far, the Russians have not targeted it directly,” Yuliia Kyian, Director General for Strategic Planning and European Integration at Ukraine’s energy ministry, told Euractiv.

“But they attack infrastructure essential for safe nuclear stations operation, and they understand that if they attacked this facility, we would need to stop our nuclear units,” Kyian said.

The IAEA already has specialist teams stationed at all of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants (NPPs), to help maintain safety and security during the military conflict.

But to place staff permanently near the sub-stations essential for nuclear safety, often located in different parts of the country, could be more tricky and require a separate mandate, as it would put staff at a significantly higher risk.

Furthermore, Russia, which is part of the organisation's decision-making body, is likely to oppose such a step.

"We understand that in a situation where we do not have sufficient air defence, we cannot spare an option, including diplomatic instruments, that can protect these facilities," said Kyian.

Asked by Euractiv about the state of the negotiations, the IAEA did not respond to a request for comment.

Air defence pleas

"We need more air defences because without them, Russians this winter will have all opportunities to strike people, ammunition depots and strike energy fields," said Lytvynenko.

According to numbers provided by Ukraine's Air Force, 1,339 Shahed-type kamikaze drones targeted the country in September, 1,107 of which were shot down, with some others being jammed by electronic warfare, and flying into Russian or Belarusian airspace.

Ukraine's Western partners have pledged to step up aid for Kyiv's war effort, as Russia is likely to try to knock out the country's energy infrastructure before winter.

But Ukrainian officials say that restrictions that prevent its armed forces from using Western weapons to strike deep inside Russia, especially for long-range strikes, are leaving them with one hand tied behind their back.

Kyiv insists the policy would help Ukraine limit Russia’s capacity to carry out attacks on civilians, by destroying arms depots and supply lines behind the frontline.

Up to now, Ukraine has relied on domestically produced drones to strike targets deep inside Russia, hoping its new homegrown weapon, the Palianytsia missile drone, will be ready by the end of the year.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to make a renewed push on the issue of Western restrictions, at a regular meeting in the US Ramstein Air Base on 12 October.

[Edited by Rajnish Singh]