North Macedonia set for rocky ties with EU as nationalists win presidential, parliamentary election

North Macedonia appeared to be on a collision course with its EU neighbours Greece and Bulgaria, as the nationalist opposition swept parliamentary and presidential elections on Wednesday (8 May).

The nationalist VMRO-DPMNE won big, on a night that saw the Balkan country also elect its first female head of state.

Hundreds of jubilant supporters of the opposition centre-right VMRO-DPMNE party braved the rain outside their party headquarters in downtown Skopje waving national and party flags and dancing to folk music.

"Dear people of (North) Macedonia ... we have made it. Macedonia won. This is a historic victory of the people," VMRO-DPMNE leader Hristijan Mickoski told the crowd.

Results from the election commission showed VMRO-DPMNE held 42% of votes with 72% of votes counted in the parliamentary poll, versus 14% for the ruling centre-left social democrats (SDSM), prompting SDSM leader Dimitar Kovacevski to concede defeat.

"The result is disappointing and this is a big blow to SDSM," Kovacevski told a news conference in which he also called for a thorough overhaul of his party.

The nationalist party's success will likely have a major effect on the Balkan country's dream of joining the European Union.

Mickoski has refused to acknowledge the country's new name and a historic agreement with Greece in 2018, which added "North" to its title to settle a long-running dispute and allowed the country to join NATO.

The opposition leader has also vowed to stand firm in a tussle with Bulgaria over linguistic and historical issues that has seen Sofia block North Macedonia's EU accession talks for the past two years.

Bulgaria has demanded Skopje change its constitution to acknowledge its Bulgarian minority. In 2022, Bulgaria agreed to a proposal by the then French Presidency of the Council of the EU to lift its veto on Skopje’s starting accession negotiations when North Macedonia adds the Bulgarian minority into the country’s constitution.

The ruling SDSM were prepared to make the amendments but lack the numbers to win a parliamentary vote. VMRO-DPMNE’s campaign ticket was the opposition to amending the constitution. -

Voters in the Balkan country of 2 million people have become frustrated with the sluggish advance of its bid to join the European Union, which was greeted with optimism in 2005 but has since become an emblem of North Macedonia's lost promise.

Enduring corruption and slow development have also soured voters against the ruling party.

In the run-off vote for the more ceremonial role of president, Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova, a university professor who was backed by the VMRO-DPMNE, beat the SDSM-backed incumbent Stevo Pendarovski in a landslide. Siljanovska-Davkova had 65% of votes versus 29% for Pendarovski, with more than 87% of votes counted.

"I was asking myself why did I deserve such a honour?" Siljanovska-Davkova told reporters shortly after being voted in as the country's first female president. "The reward is priceless for me, this is a huge responsibility."

The opposition will likely need to form coalitions with smaller partners to win a majority in parliament. Discussions are expected to take place in the coming days.

"EU accession will not progress significantly under a potential VMRO-DPMNE government," said Mario Bikarski, Eastern and Central European analyst at risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft.

Ethnic Albanians

In the run-up to Wednesday's contest, Mickoski used increasingly aggressive language towards the country's largest Albanian party -- the DUI -- stirring anxieties that the rhetoric could undercut fragile inter-ethnic relations.

Albanians make up more than a quarter of the country's population of 1.8 million, and the DUI's leader Ali Ahmeti led a brief armed revolt for greater rights for Albanians in 2001, when NATO pulled the former Yugoslav republic back from the brink of civil war

Since declaring independence from Yugoslavia in 1991, successive governments have followed an unwritten rule that an ethnic Albanian party must be included in the governing coalition.

The DUI, along with an alliance of minority parties, appears set to capture the largest number of Albanian votes despite Mickoski lambasting its leaders over alleged corruption.

"Whenever I tell the truth, they distort it as an attack against Albanians," said Mickoski.

The centre of the capital Skopje is dotted with unfinished or empty concrete and marble buildings erected during VMRO-DPMNE's last tenure, which ended when SDSM took power in 2017. A concert hall that burned down months ago awaits renovation.

Some towns and cities are among the most polluted in Europe, due in part to coal consumption and old cars. Much of the country's youth has emigrated abroad in search of better prospects.

While many were unsure of what the opposition could do to change things, some were hopeful.

"This is great, North Macedonia is being returned to Macedonians, VMRO-DPMNE did it," said Pance Petkovski, 23, a student who watched election coverage on a TV in a Skopje café.

Despite the roadblocks to EU membership, many voters remained hopeful that North Macedonia would join the bloc in the future.

"Without the European community we can not survive," Trajce Nacevski, a 90-year-old pensioner, told AFP. "We are a small country."