EPP optimistic but ‘takes nothing for granted’ on von der Leyen

The centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) remains optimistic about its candidate Ursula von der Leyen reaching the necessary EU Parliament majority next week to get re-elected at the EU Commission’s helm. However, work is being done to convince the suspected deviants as “nothing can be taken for granted”.

The vote in the EU Parliament about von der Leyen approaches, and the EPP is gearing up to ensure the majority is there.

For now, von der Leyen relies on the votes of the pro-EU coalition (EPP, S&D, Renew) and potentially of the Greens.

But as the ballot is secret, no one can guarantee that all MEPs will vote for her: There is a red line “15%” of potential losses, even from within her own political family.

According to the current numbers, if the Greens do not join the coalition and the worst-case 15% applies, then von der Leyen has a problem as she does not get the 361 majority. If the Greens join, things look safer for her.

‘We work hard’

An EPP source in the European Parliament familiar with the matter told Euractiv that the focus is currently on the EU centre-right family’s potential deviants: France’s Republicans (six votes), and Slovenia’s Democratic Party (SDS—four votes).

All these parties voted against nominating von der Leyen at the party’s congress in Bucharest last March.

“We honour the decision of individual MEPs, we are doing what needs to be done, and we take nothing for granted”, the source said, adding that all EPP leaders speak to their MEPs as well as von der Leyen herself.

In the case of French Republicans, the EPP leadership on 24 June made a reconciliation move by appointing MEP François-Xavier Bellamy as EPP Treasurer.

EPP insiders suggest that the move was a clear gesture toward the Republicans to take a step back on the row with von der Leyen.

However, a Republican source told Euractiv that the party's position - to vote against von der Leyen - should not change, even though MEPs will discuss the issue next week.

In Berlin, the Christian Democrats do not see problems in von der Leyen's EU Parliament battle.

A source close to the CDU delegation said they were “not worried about the investiture vote”.

However, potential losses within the EPP could be more significant considering that at the Bucharest Congress, although 737 EPP delegates were eligible to vote, only 499 voted, out of whom 89 were against her.

The EPP source explained to Euractiv that most who abstained were EU lawmakers who “clocked in to get the daily fee and then clocked out”.

Greens, Liberals fear EPP

In the case of Greens and Liberals, it seems every word of von der Leyen’s speech next week in Strasbourg will matter.

The EU Greens are expected to vote “as a group” for von der Leyen as long as she does not backtrack on the Green Deal.

At the same time, though, they see a “disunited” EPP, especially regarding von der Leyen’s choice to seek support on the left rather than from the hard-right ECR.

“I think that there are different delegations that have very different positions on this, and we obviously have a preference as to which side should prevail in this internal struggle in the EPP”, co-president of the Greens/EFA group Terry Reintke said.

The EU liberal Renew see von der Leyen as the “only alternative” to block the far-right with the revival of the pro-EU grand coalition.

But they still fear that she has made many promises to several people to be able to put the coalition together.

“She has promised a lot of different things to a lot of different people”, a Renew official told Euractiv, adding that these promises could end up playing tricks on the pretender to the throne.

Renew cites the ban on internal combustion engines in new cars from 2035, a “key demand” of EU socialists for the next European Commission.

Read more: EU socialists: Ban on petrol cars ‘key demand’ for next Commission

The news already triggered reactions in Berlin, with liberal FDP German Transport Minister Volker Wissing warning that refusing to reverse the ban would be a “gigantic electoral fraud”.

“The vote is secret, but it would be a shame if she were elected by votes from S&D, Renew, or even ECR only to lose because of internal disagreements within her own party”, a Renew source said.

Renew Irish MEPs opposed her second term because of her openly pro-Israel stance.

“But the Irish will come around”, said a senior figure at Renew convincingly.

Bullmann: Speeches do not matter, actions do

In the EU socialists camp, delegations "are not outspoken" regarding their vote intentions next week, a S&D source told Euractiv.

For his part, SPD MEP Udo Bullmann told Euractiv that he is "not waiting" for von der Leyen's speech but "true commitments".

"I heard her marvellous speech five years ago, but that had nothing to do with what followed".

Bullmann explained that the methodology is not convincing: "You can get every speech from von der Leyen [...] I'm not waiting for her speech, I'm waiting for a commitment on paper".

"Why don't we urge her to subscribe to a couple of principles? How to share power, how to organise the governance in the Commission, how to organise a balance that involves the S&D, Renew, the Greens as with together with the EPP?", Bullmann added.

The German politician strongly backed the inclusion of the Greens in the pro-EU coalition as a "productive force" and called on Von der Leyen to read "the signs on the wall" after the elections in the UK and France.

"Keep herself away from Meloni and follow the advice to be the candidate of the pro-European forces”, he noted.

Last but not least, he estimated that the EPP, a "group that keeps them together the access to power", would do "everything needed to find a majority" for von der Leyen.

*(Nick Alipour, Laurent Geslin contributed to this story)

[Edited by Alice Taylor]